2026
Hong Kong’s MPF Assets may hit HK$4.2 Trillion in 2045 – Actuaries report MPF Market Size Projection for the next 20 years and what it means to you
Hong Kong, [5 March 2026] – The Actuarial Society of Hong Kong (ASHK) has published the MPF Market Size Projection 2025-2045 study (2025 Report), its latest estimate of the future size of the Mandatory Provident Fund (MPF) assets over the coming 20 years.
The MPF system affects the lives of the great majority of Hong Kong’s working population and their families. According to data released by the Mandatory Provident Fund Schemes Authority (MPFA), as of 31 December 2025, the MPF assets stood at approximately HK$1,550 billion.
The 2025 Report was undertaken by the ASHK Pension and Employee Benefits Committee. The starting point for the study was data published in December 2025 by MPFA. The projected 2045 MPF assets size is in a range of HK$3.9 to 4.5 trillion, around 2.7 times the 2025 level. It is expected that MPF assets will reach the HK$2 trillion mark around 2030 and HK$3 trillion around 2038.
It is important to note that the actual asset balance in 2045 will depend on several uncertain factors, including actual contribution amounts, economics, demographics, regulatory changes, members’ and employers’ behaviour. The report estimates the most sensitive factor impacting the balance will be future investment returns. For example, a 0.5% per annum difference in net investment return will result in an HK$300 billion difference in the 2045 balance. Nevertheless, the ASHK believes that its independently derived best estimate will be useful to the MPF community and the public.
- 1. Outliving Your Savings? ASHK Warns of Longevity Trap – Push for Silver Products to Secure Lifelong Income!
The study also projects that for a 45-year-old male employee with an existing MPF balance of HK$0.4 million who contributes HK$2,000[1] monthly would accumulate approximately HK$1.8 million when he retires at age 65. This lump sum savings can be used during his entire retirement life.
However, life expectancy in Hong Kong has increased by around 5.5 years[2] since the launch of MPF over 20 years ago. Given this general increase and the unpredictability of an individual’s lifespan, the savings will need to last longer than planned, and there is a risk that we will outlive our MPF savings (longevity risk) upon retirement.
ASHK advocates the development of more “silver” products and services, such as annuities, that provide a sustainable income source. Following retirement, there should be strategic integration and promotion of these “silver” products as a complementary tool that offers a lifelong income stream. This could include using choice architecture to transfer lump sums of MPF withdrawal (full or partial) into annuities (or other income generating products) and include inflation protection features to maintain purchasing power.
In parallel more help is needed for pre-retirees and retirees to understand the options and strategies for managing their MPF savings. This could include utilising PensionTech for personalised communication, providing better financial education that leads to behaviour changes, and providing free, impartial, personalised information/guidance. - 2. Retire Better: Raise Contributions Now or Face a Retirement Crisis
The study also projects that, adjusting for inflation, the above MPF savings of HK$1.8 million could generate a monthly annuity of HK$6,400[3] at 2025 price level; this equates to a 32% pension replacement rate[4].
This rate is low when compared to many developed economies[5], highlighting that the existing mandatory savings alone is insufficient. Without adequate retirement income, retirees may become a financial burden on their families or society. To improve retirement adequacy, ASHK calls for more intervention to increase the contribution amounts to boost MPF savings. The maximum relevant income (Max RI) level has been static since 2014; it no longer keeps pace with salary inflation and should be raised. Mandatory contributions can also be increased by uplifting the mandatory contribution rate of 5% and introducing tiering.
Also, for the above-mentioned case, if the MPF member were to start making voluntary contributions of HK$5,000 per month at 45 years old (taking advantage of the tax-deductible voluntary contributions TVC) to increase MPF savings, his pension replacement rate would increase to 64%. ASHK also stresses the need for enhanced policies aimed at encouraging voluntary contributions. This includes using behavioural nudges[6], simplifying digital enrolment for TVC, setting separate tax-deductible limits for TVC and QDAP (qualifying deferred annuity plans), and providing incentives to encourage employer-matched voluntary contributions.
[1] Estimation based on the 2024 median monthly employment earnings of employed persons over 15, which was HK$20,000
[2] Hong Kong Assured Lives Mortality 2022 Issued in 2025
[3] Using a long-term inflation assumption of 2.5% p.a., the projected MPF savings of HK$1.8 million in 2045 would be equivalent to approximately HK$1.11 million in 2025 price levels. The annuity is calculated with this amount under the current terms of the HKMC Annuity Plan for a male.
[4] Pension replacement rate = Pension income / Pre-retirement income
[5] OECD Gross Pension Replacement Rates https://www.oecd.org/en/data/indicators/gross-pension-replacement-rates.html
[6] A subtle prompt or design feature that encourages people to make a specific choice without forcing them or taking away their other option
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(L-R)
Zita Chung FASHK, ASHK Pension & Employee Benefits Committee Vice-Chairperson 香港精算學會退休金及僱員福利委員會副主席鍾思達女士
William Chow FASHK - ASHK Pension & Employee Benefits Committee Member and Project Lead 香港精算學會退休金及僱員福利委員會成員及專案負責人周沛言先生
Patrick Au FASHK - ASHK Vice President 香港精算學會副會長區志禮先生
Kevin Lee FASHK - ASHK Pension & Employee Benefits Committee Chairperson 香港精算學會退休金及僱員福利委員會主席李吉宏先生
The Actuarial Society of Hong Kong Welcomes 2026 - 2027 Budget: Fortifying Hong Kong’s Resilience through Risk Management and Innovation
2025
The Actuarial Society of Hong Kong Releases Newest Hong Kong Assured Life Mortality Table
Hong Kong, [26 August 2025] – The Actuarial Society of Hong Kong (ASHK) has published the Hong Kong Assured Life Mortality Table 2022 (HKA22). This comprehensive study analyses the mortality experience of assured lives in Hong Kong, providing valuable insights into prevailing health trends.
Comprehensive Industry Collaboration and Data Coverage
The HKA22 is the fifth assured lives mortality table published by ASHK for the Hong Kong industry. The study period spans eight years, covering 2014 to 2021, with the midpoint at the end of 2017. Data was collected from 13 insurance companies, representing 94% [1] of the market based on the number of in-force policies as of the end of 2021. This extensive coverage enhances the credibility of the findings and offers a robust foundation for understanding mortality patterns within Hong Kong's life insurance sector.
During the study period, over 60 million exposure years and 105,000 claims were collected, marking a 25% increase in exposure and a 38% increase in claims compared to the previous study, HKA18. These findings provide a detailed understanding of mortality trends, which are crucial for developing targeted health interventions and policies.
Key Health Trends Identified
The HKA22 study has identified several critical health trends that warrant attention:
Life Expectancy Continues to Improve – Good News or Bad News?
The study shows that life expectancy in Hong Kong has seen a steady increase with men averaging 84.2 years and women 88.6 years in this study (from 80.2 for men and 85.0 women in the HKA93 study). This persistent gender disparity of more than four years underscores the need for targeted health interventions to address factors contributing to male mortality. ASHK calls for comprehensive studies to identify the underlying causes (such as biological and genetic advantages, early-life mortality differences, risk-taking and behavioural factors) contributing to the shorter life expectancy of men compared to women.
Understanding these factors is crucial for developing targeted strategies to promote longevity and overall well-being among men. While women in Hong Kong generally live longer, they often face unique challenges related to finance, mental health and disability as they age. Thus, we need to emphasise the need for enhanced policies aimed to improve not only lifespan, but healthspan, especially for women. By focusing on gender-specific needs, ASHK advocates for a more inclusive and supportive environment for the aging population. This includes developing more “silver” products and services that address the distinct health and financial requirements of both men and women – helping them live independence and in dignity as they advance into senior years, without becoming a burden on their families or society.
Increase in Youth Suicides – Can we do more for our Children?
According to the study, suicide rates for those under 25 years old increased to 25% for men and 23% for women in HKA22, compared to lower rates in earlier studies (e.g. 9% for men and women in HKA01). Suicide incidences in teenagers and young adults are also higher compared to other age bands. This underscores the need for mental health interventions targeting youth. Policies could include expanding access to mental health services in schools/universities, funding community-based counselling programmes, and launching awareness campaigns to reduce stigma around mental health. The trend compared to previous studies highlights the urgency for targeted interventions.
Cancer Remains Leading Cause of Death - Increase seen in Youth
The study shows that cancer is the leading killer, accounting for 44.8% of deaths. The condition causes 20% of all male deaths under 25 years old and 23% for female, a substantial increase compared to earlier studies (e.g., 15% for both men and women in HKA01). Screening programmes for colorectal, cervical, and breast cancer should continue to be actively promoted among high-risk groups, alongside vaccination efforts such as HPV and hepatitis B immunisation to help prevent cervical and liver cancers. Additionally, ongoing evaluation of public education campaigns on lifestyle-based prevention—such as smoking cessation, healthy diet, physical activity, alcohol moderation, and sun protection—will help ensure their continued relevance and effectiveness. The general rise in cancer deaths among those under 25, such as leukaemia, brain tumours, and lymphomas, also supports a policy to fund targeted programmes for high-risk youth. This could include awareness campaigns of warning symptoms, such as fever, severe and persistent headaches, bone pain and weight loss, for families and primary care providers.
Heart Diseases Disproportionately Affecting Men
The study reveals that cardiovascular diseases accounted for 12.8% of deaths in Hong Kong. 16% of all death for men over 45 years old are caused from these conditions, higher compared to women (10%), underscoring the importance of gender-specific health campaigns. This data calls for public health campaigns promoting heart health, including blood pressure screenings, dietary education, lifestyle interventions, and exercise programmes, alongside increased funding for cardiovascular care facilities to manage chronic conditions in older adults, particularly for men.
Conclusion
The HKA22 study provides a critical analysis of mortality trends in assured lives in Hong Kong, highlighting areas that require immediate attention and intervention. ASHK remains committed to collaborating with industry stakeholders, policymakers, and the community to develop and implement strategies that address these health challenges, ultimately aiming to improve the overall well-being and longevity of Hong Kong's population.
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Alexander Wong, Council Member of the ASHK 港精算學會理事黃建邦先生
Steve Hui, President of the ASHK 香港精算學會會長許毅飛先生
Orchis Li, Member of the ASHK’s Public Policy Committee 香港精算學會公共政策委員會成員李紫蘭女士
Simon Lam, Council Member of the ASHK 香港精算學會理事林溢東先生
2024
Asian Actuarial Conference 2024 Kicks Off in Hong Kong to Great Acclaims
Top Business Leaders Converge to Chart the Future and Navigate Exciting Opportunities in Hong Kong and Beyond
(Hong Kong, 23 Oct 2024) – The three-day Asian Actuarial Conference 2024 (AAC 2024) organised by the Actuarial Society of Hong Kong (ASHK), commenced today at the Ocean Park Marriott Hotel. This year's conference, themed “Exploring the Future of Insurance and Beyond: Innovation, International Hubs, and Hong Kong,” has more than 100 internationally renowned experts from diverse industries as speakers and panellists, and close to 1,000 participants including actuarial professionals, executives, and thought leaders from across Asia and beyond, making it a significant gathering in the actuarial community.
Mr. Joseph Chan, Under Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury of the HKSAR, officiated the opening ceremony together with Mr. Timothy Wong, President of the Actuarial Society of Hong Kong, Mr. Stephen Yiu, Chairman of the Insurance Authority, and Ms. Daisy Ning, Head Life & Health APAC ex China of Swiss Re.
Timothy Wong, President of the ASHK, said, “We are delighted to have top business leaders in the region coming to Hong Kong to join AAC 2024, returning to the city after six years. Apart from allowing us, actuaries and insurers, to gain valuable insights on the evolving landscape of the professions, the Conference is also a vital platform for us to connect with practitioners in other professions that have wide-reaching implications for the future of ours. With the market changing so rapidly, it is essential for actuaries to stay abreast of latest industry developments and to unlock the vast potential of actuarial science to the benefit of diverse fields. Together, we are paving the way for growth of the actuary profession in Hong Kong.”
Alongside technologies advancing at ever faster speed and with business opportunities of all kinds emerging in the Greater Bay Area, financial markets in the region have also become more complex and sophisticated. More companies are recognising the importance of financial planning and the need to effectively manage risks. Actuaries, equipped with a unique blend of analytical and business skills, are adept at helping businesses address diverse financial and social challenges. By developing models to assess the current financial implications of uncertain future events, they enable companies to make scientific and rational decisions.
Also, taking into account the risk-based capital (RBC) regime for the Hong Kong insurance industry introduced on July 1 this year, plus the 2024 Policy Address just delivered by the Chief Executive of the HKSAR outlining ways to enhance development of the insurance sector, attract large enterprises to establish captive insurers in Hong Kong, and strengthen Hong Kong's position as a global risk management centre, actuaries are going to be in great demand in the near future. The government intends to examine capital requirements of and drive infrastructure investment, and enrich insurance companies' asset allocation for risk diversification, which are expertise areas of the actuarial profession, showing that actuaries have a pivotal role to play in ensuring the resilience and sustainable growth of the city.
Simon Lam, Co-Chairperson Organising Committee Asian Actuarial Conference 2024 concluded, “As of December 2023, ASHK has a total of 1,293 members. With polices and regulations in its favour, ASHK, as the leading professional body for actuaries in Hong Kong, is ready to nurture more talent for the profession to meet the rising demand.”
Day Two and Three of the AAC 2024 will explore important themes such as growth in emerging Asia, Hong Kong as an international hub, regulation, artificial intelligence, blockchain, ESG, professionalism, and more. The conference will conclude on Friday with excursions for delegates to visit the Greater Bay Area, Hong Kong Cyberport, Hong Kong Science Park, and the Palace Museum.
(From Left to Right)
Simon Lam, Co-Chairperson Organising Committee Asian Actuarial Conference 2024
Ms. Daisy Ning, Head Life & Health APAC ex China of Swiss Re
Mr. Stephen Yiu, Chairman of the Insurance Authority
Timothy Wong, President of the Actuarial Society of Hong Kong
Joseph Chan, HKSAR Under Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury
Clement Cheung, CEO of the Insurance Authority
Alex Wong, Co-Chairperson Organising Committee Asian Actuarial Conference 2024
Billy Wong, Co-Chairperson Organising Committee Asian Actuarial Conference 2024
HKSAR Under Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Joseph Chan honoured the event by delivering opening remarks
2023
Strengthening Retirement Financial Planning: A Partnership between HKMC Annuity Limited and the Actuarial Society of Hong Kong
(HONG KONG, 6 October 2023) Hong Kong is experiencing a rapid increase in its ageing population, with projections indicating that by 2039, approximately one-third of its residents will be aged 65 or above. Unfortunately, there is a lack of public awareness regarding the potential risks associated with this demographic shift. In response, HKMC Annuity Limited (HKMCA) and the Actuarial Society of Hong Kong (ASHK) are collaborating to enhance public education for ASHK members, their families, and friends about longevity risk management, and to facilitate the growth and advancement of the annuity market.
At the event, ASHK President, Mr Simon Lam commented that “leveraging on the expertise of actuaries, the HKMC Annuity Plan offers a guaranteed income stream to ensure a comfortable and worry-free retirement, empowering individuals to embrace their golden years with confidence.” Mr Raymond Li, ED and CEO of The Hong Kong Mortgage Corporation Limited (HKMC) added that “The HKMCA is committed to promote the financial well-being of the retired population in Hong Kong. The collaboration with the ASHK will foster the local annuity market development and enhance public awareness about the longevity risk management.”
(left to right) Timothy Wong, Vice President of ASHK and Lawrence Lai, Appointed Actuary of HKMCA sign the partnership agreement.
(left to right) Damian Yip, Executive Director of ASHK; Timothy Wong, Vice President of ASHK; Simon Lam, President of ASHK; Raymond Li, ED & CEO of HKMC; Sunny Yung, ED & CEO of HKMCA; and Lawrence Lai, Appointed Actuary of HKMCA join the celebration of this partnership.
2023
Strengthening Retirement Financial Planning: A Partnership between HKMC Annuity Limited and the Actuarial Society of Hong Kong
(HONG KONG, 6 October 2023) Hong Kong is experiencing a rapid increase in its ageing population, with projections indicating that by 2039, approximately one-third of its residents will be aged 65 or above. Unfortunately, there is a lack of public awareness regarding the potential risks associated with this demographic shift. In response, HKMC Annuity Limited (HKMCA) and the Actuarial Society of Hong Kong (ASHK) are collaborating to enhance public education for ASHK members, their families, and friends about longevity risk management, and to facilitate the growth and advancement of the annuity market.
At the event, ASHK President, Mr Simon Lam commented that “leveraging on the expertise of actuaries, the HKMC Annuity Plan offers a guaranteed income stream to ensure a comfortable and worry-free retirement, empowering individuals to embrace their golden years with confidence.” Mr Raymond Li, ED and CEO of The Hong Kong Mortgage Corporation Limited (HKMC) added that “The HKMCA is committed to promote the financial well-being of the retired population in Hong Kong. The collaboration with the ASHK will foster the local annuity market development and enhance public awareness about the longevity risk management.”
(left to right) Timothy Wong, Vice President of ASHK and Lawrence Lai, Appointed Actuary of HKMCA sign the partnership agreement.
(left to right) Damian Yip, Executive Director of ASHK; Timothy Wong, Vice President of ASHK; Simon Lam, President of ASHK; Raymond Li, ED & CEO of HKMC; Sunny Yung, ED & CEO of HKMCA; and Lawrence Lai, Appointed Actuary of HKMCA join the celebration of this partnership.
2022
The ASHK Actuary Internship Portal is designed to help employers recruit students who wish to embark on an actuarial career. ASHK members are actuaries who work in the industries of insurance, consultancy, finance, education institutes and government, they are also hiring managers for actuary positions. This puts ASHK in a unique position to match recruiters to actuary students.
Connecting employers with a larger pool of students
Companies recruit candidates for actuarial internships each year but are challenged to fill up these vacancies due to too keen competition from many employers and a limited supply of students. The portal will help employers fill these actuarial internships by reaching out to a wider student base (see Key Institutions and Courses).
- Actuarial undergraduates from all local universities
- Master actuarial students/graduates who are interested in an internship
- Students studying actuarial-related courses who are considering a career in actuary
- Overseas actuarial students/graduates who are interested to work in Hong Kong
Connecting students to multiple actuarial job opportunities
Some university programmes have an established system to assist students to secure their inbuilt internship. However, for students that are seeking other internships to experience different types of actuarial work or looking for part-time work, they would largely need to self-source. The Portal will help students connect with different employers that are offering actuarial internship/part-time/contract opportunities.
One-stop shop
The Portal will collect actuarial-related job opportunities from different employers (see Employer List) and publish them twice a year. Students can just visit the portal once every half year to view all the upcoming opportunities and submit one CV if they are interested. CVs from interested students will be collected and sent to the relevant employers. Employers will then reach out to suitable students.
What to do to use the portal?
Students: Register as an ASHK Student Member by 16 Dec 2022 to view the portal.
Employers: Register as an Actuary Employer by 28 Nov 2022 to post on the portal.
Key dates for process
ASHK ESG Day & Joint Regional Seminar 2022
Your Profession Needs You
The Government intends to implement a Risk-based Capital regime for the insurance industry, which seeks to align Hong Kong’s regime with international standards and strengthen Hong Kong’s function as an international risk management Centre.
The legislation for the Risk-based Capital regime is expected to be submitted in the second half of 2022 and implemented in early 2024. To ensure that the Professional Standards for Appointed Actuaries (PS1) and the Actuarial Guidance Notes (AGN) are in line with the new legislation, ASHK is inviting qualified actuaries to join in this work. For more details of each task click below or email info@actuaries.org.hk. The submission deadline is 24 June 2022 (Friday).
2021
ASHK Member Consultation on Proposed Amendments to Existing Articles of Association, Disciplinary Procedures and Professional Conduct Code (PCC)
Please click on the following links for the full text of the revised Articles, Disciplinary Procedures and Professional Conduct Code (existing, marked-up and clean versions):
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Existing Version |
Proposed Amendments |
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Articles of Association |
Clean: Click here |
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Disciplinary Procedures |
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Clean: Click here |
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Professional Conduct Code |
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Clean: Click here |
Actuarial Circular Notice - Group Medical Pricing
Explanatory Note for Appointed Actuaries: Chapter 41E Supplemental Information on the Reinvestment Yield for Reserving
ASHK elects New President and Council for the year 2021
2020
Presentation slides of Online Members Consultation on ASHK New Membership Class
ASHK MPF Market Size Projection 2020 - 2040
Hong Kong Actuarial Summit 2020 (Virtual Conference)
ASHK Consultation - ASHK New Nembership Sub-class, Fellow Members with Practicing Certificate (FASHKPC)
ASHK Consultation - Actuarial Guidance Note 10: General Actuarial Practice (“AGN 10”)
ASHK's Study Reveals Significant Improvement in Hong Kong Mortality Experience
Hong Kong RBC Technical Adjustment Proposal to IA
ASHK Response to Inland Revenue Ordinance (Cap.112) Amendment
Explanatory Note for Appointed Actuaries: Chapter 41E Supplemental Information on the Reinvestment Yield for Reserving
Notice for Appointed Actuaries: Insurance (Determination of Long Term Liabilities) Rules (Chapter 41E), Rule 8(7)(a)
Effective January 1, 2020
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